October 31, 2009
Who Google kills with Droid
The new Droid buzz is exciting -- a challenger with gusto for the arrogant, invincible iPhone. Or is it?
It's a strategically crucial launch for Android, which has had little impact on the smartphone market so far. It's made mobile operating systems 'cheaper' (free) but not too many people are in that business these days (except Symbian, also free, and MSFT). The real players make gadgets -- Apple, RIMM, Palm. If -- if -- if this phone is a major hit (e.g., 1 million sold by Q2), it's a win for Google. But not at the expense of Apple. Rather, the likely loser is -- Palm. Those guys have the most to lose as they battle for a distinction. Dev community? Android's bigger. Fast 3G network? Verizon's better. Hardware slickness? Moto's thinner. Touch? Check. Open source/Linux? Check. Apple already brought Palm to its knees, by hoovering up the consumer non-enterprise part of the smartphone market. For the remaining share, why choose Palm over Android? It's a pattern that Google's rear-view mirror makes clear. Search? Killed Yahoo, not Evil Empire MSFT. Mail? More arrows in Yahoo and AOL's back? Maps? AOL's Mapquest and Yahoo again. Who suffers as Chrome grows? Mozilla. Or Google Docs? Folks like Zoho and OpenOffice. Not that Google only picks on upstarts or weaklings, it just doesn't really tackle the Microsofts and Ciscos and Apples and AT&Ts and Verizons and Comcasts and Facebooks etc etc. If the Droid is a winner the loser will not be a goliath like those; it will be the almost-comeback-kid Palm. The secret to success? Google takes the hindmost. Sent by Peek from http://me.drwn.comPosted from my Peek through email
Posted by amol at October 31, 2009 6:18 PM
