September 19, 2009
The Twitter Showdown and Wintel
Chris Dixon made an argument that I'm sure folks have been thinking about lately, that Twitter will inevitably reach confrontation with its API-driven ecosystem.
In a weak sense it's obviously true -- folks will have toes stepped on as everybody figures out what they want to do.
But he isn't alone in wondering whether some services that have been growing by supplying Twitter with enhancements or features -- complementary services, like bit.ly -- will suddenly get stomped when Twitter changes direction. Maybe Twitter wants to do its own URL-shortener, or maybe they don't want you to use third-party apps where Twitter's ads don't show.
Take the opposite view though -- not all complements turn into competitors, the way Microsoft ate the applications on its OS or Google seems to be aiming for the browsers that its search runs on.
For example, down the stack from Windows there is Intel -- there hasn't been a more productive partnership in tech, ever. Add HP to that club, making the gear itself.
Or for a different category look at Nokia and wireless operators globally like Vodafone or Orange.
Battelle points out that Google's AdSense is a great partner for the wider Internet.
Some other natural cases where they simply combined rather than battling: Yahoo-Overture, Ebay-Paypal. (I'm sure the TweetMemes of the world wouldn't mind that outcome. Summize didn't.)
These are cases where the category growth (personal computing, mobile) is huge and there are diverse roles to play as it gets captured. Vodafone and Nokia were partners in replacing fixed-line voice, and growing the overall pie.
Given how important the API partners have been to Twitter's growth, my guess is they'll do their best to keep fueling the growth of Twitter as a platform and look for ways that monetize it in a way that's consistent with that strategy. It's not that hard.
After all, if you didn't already know the answer, you might have asked the same "how will they show ads" questions about Google search results and partners. How on earth will Google monetize its approach of partner sites showing its search results??? Well, they have the partner present the ads and share in the revenue. Copy-and-paste to TweetDeck.
Though it seems awfully important to make sure they are building a distinctive and powerful service -- a communication and media platform that's well integrated into the legions of apps, sites, devices, and services who decided this year that "Twitter was a big deal". It will be a while before Twitter decides to hose these guys. Dixon may only be saying eventually someone will get trampled by the Mothership; eventually is probably a fair while off. In the case of Wintel, it hasn't happened yet.
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