MVNO-it-alone?

MVNO-it-alone?

NTL could turn into Virgin from Guardian Unlimited: Technology

Virtuall from the start I have had my doubts about the liquidity-event-potential of Virgin Mobile (USA), while admitting the UK case was a very different situation. For one, the VMUK guys managed to become a 1/5 share player in the overall market (since they were so early to launch, and the brand strong), buy out their JV partner (T-Mobile, due to quirks of the original deal), then IPO the company (to financial market yawns, but still not bad), and now perhaps exit altogether in a merger/takeover.

What's neat about the UK case is that it makes the "MVNO as fourth leg of a quadruple play" thing very real, sort of the way Big Cable's deal with Sprint did earlier this year.

But whence Virgin Mobile US? Stuck as a 50-50 still, carrying lots of high-yield, apparently financially messy (one hears, but who knows maybe they started making money), stuck as a pure prepay/pure "youth segment" player...the opportunities for exit are weaker.

Indeed the interesting discussion I had today was: maybe there is no exit at all! Sprint now owns the copy-cat Boost Mobile (100%, rather than 50%). It has been rolling Boost into all the places they sell Virgin. Is it not a matter of time before they bloody Virgin further?

Who would buy IPO shares in such an operation? With VMUK as an independent gone, can Virgin save them? Can anyone actually profit from it...but Sprint? In which case, we'd expect to see them snuff it out slowly, then take it over for a bargain price and merge it into Boost (undoubtedly the better managed company). We'll see what happens. Good luck to my old chums.