March 16, 2004
The Death of...MTV
As the Internet gets faster (more broadband penetration, faster broadband), cable TV will lose its importance for consumers.
Right now, you have to watch Internet content on a PC. Get a $200 box like the HP or Linksys or PinnacleIQ media gateways, and you don't have to.
My prediction for the first channel to die: MTV. They don't even show videos anymore. And when they do, they aren't the ones you like. By contrast, Yahoo! Launch only shows the ones you like (plus suggestions you might like...). So why watch MTV?
Second to die is news. You will get news online (you already do...but you'll phase out the TV part entirely for a push-experience via online providers). I've already stopped watching CNN on TV.
Later come the full "program" channels. That you get on-demand or on TiVo, so you don't need to sit through commercials or tune in at all. If you want to watch Sopranos, you click and there it is. (Cable has set itself up to deliver this to you through video-on-demand, but obviously the Internet is hard at work trying to deliver this to you.)
So the interesting thing is not that shows will eventually be phased out by on-demand; it is that streamed or "sit back" type programming like music videos or news will be phased out by Internet. I claim that the latter will happen before the former -- MTV dies before NBC or HBO.
Posted by amol at March 16, 2004 06:07 PM
